Steel industry is an important industry in the national economy, iron ore, iron and steel industry is the most basic raw materials. At present, China's industrialization and urbanization are accelerating development, and it needs to rely on a large amount of steel raw material support, which requires a large amount of iron ore resources to provide protection. It is expected that demand for steel and iron ore resources will continue to grow in the longer term before industrialization and urbanization will be completed in the future. Scientific analysis of the law of steel consumption, and thus forecasting the demand for iron ore resources, is of great significance for the formulation of China's important mineral resources supply and security policies. I. Analysis of the law of steel consumption The development history of industrialized countries shows that the consumption of steel raw materials is different from the economic development of a country, the process of industrialization, and The development environment is closely related. (1) Economic development stage and steel consumption intensity According to the International Steel Association's "Strength of Steel Consumption and Gross National Economic Structure" and related experts, a country is in the mid-stage of industrialization, and the intensity of steel consumption is increasing rapidly, and its growth rate may exceed the growth rate of GDP. In the later stage of industrialization, the gross national product will increase at a steady rate, and the steel consumption intensity may remain unchanged. In the industrialized development stage, the gross national product continues to grow, while the steel consumption intensity declines. As shown in Figure 1, the current national steel consumption intensity of most completed industrialization is less than 0.5t/million US dollars. Figure 1 Comparison of main country steel consumption intensity (2) Per capita GDP and steel consumption According to research by Song Jijun and others, when a country's per capita GDP reaches 1,000 to 3,000 US dollars, steel production and steel consumption are in a period of rapid growth; when per capita GDP reaches 3,000 to 6,000 US dollars, steel production and steel consumption are in a period of steady and slow growth; When GDP reaches more than 6,000 US dollars, steel production capacity is in a downturn. (3) Industrialization and peak steel consumption Steel consumption peaks (saturation point), generally have three conditions: First, the country has basically achieved industrialization, second, the per capita GDP has reached 3,500 to 6,000 US dollars; third, the service industry accounts for more than 50% of GDP in the industrial structure, and High-tech has developed quite well, and the comprehensive industrial level has reached a certain height. Due to the different national conditions and industrialization processes, the peak of steel consumption and the year of arrival have a large gap. As shown in Figure 2, the United States completed modern industrialization in 1960. In 1973, steel consumption reached a peak of 644 kg/person; Japan completed industrialization in 1980, and the peak of steel reached 1098 kg/person in 1973; the United Kingdom completed industrialization in 1840, but steel consumption in 1970 It reached its peak and reached 509kg/person. Statistics show that when the industrialized countries have reached the peak of steel consumption, the per capita steel output is at least 500kg. Figure 2 Peak and the year of steel in major developed countries (Foreign Steel Statistics, 1981) Second, China's steel demand forecast In addition to the demand, China's crude steel output is greatly affected by the state's macro-control policies, and is also affected by factors such as regional economy, urban and rural development, and industrial policies. Despite this, China's steel consumption also has a development track of industrialized countries. (I) Analysis of changes in crude steel production According to Figure 3, from 1982 to 2000, when China's per capita GDP was less than 1,000 US dollars, crude steel output was basically in a steady growth stage, and it grew with GDP growth, but the growth rate was lower than GDP growth rate, and the average annual growth of crude steel. The rate is 7.4%, while the average annual GDP growth rate is 18.4%. Figure 3: Change in crude steel and GDP growth from 1982 to 2009 (According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics) In 2000, after China's per capita GDP reached 1,000 US dollars, steel production was at a high growth stage. The average annual growth rate between 2001 and 2007 reached 21.1%, while the GDP growth rate during the same period was 14.6%. After per capita GDP reached 3,000 US dollars in 2008, the growth of steel output showed a slowdown. The average annual growth rate of crude steel in 2008-2009 was 7.8%, and the annual GDP growth rate was 14.2%. (II) The law of changes in steel consumption intensity According to the above analysis, China's steel consumption intensity (hereinafter replaced by the unit GDP crude steel volume) also shows a regular change. From the 1980s to the beginning of this century, China's steel consumption intensity continued to decline. The crude steel per unit of GDP fell from 6,981 t/million in 1982 to 1,295 t/million in 2000, and decreased by 5,982 tons in nine years, with an average annual decline of 315 tons. After the per capita GDP reached 1,000 US dollars in 2000, due to the unprecedented acceleration of the construction and transportation industry, coupled with the extensive production of steel, the steel consumption intensity rebounded, and the crude steel per unit of GDP increased from 1383 t/million in 2010 to 2007. The 1903t/billion yuan has increased by 608t in seven years, with an average annual increase of 87t. The crude steel volume per unit of GDP rebounded to the level of the early 1990s. After the per capita GDP exceeded 3,000 dollars in 2008, the crude steel volume per unit of GDP began to decline significantly. In 2008, it decreased by 237 tons from 2007, down to 1666 tons/100 million yuan. According to the above analysis, the crude steel volume per unit of GDP in China will be in a steady downward trend in the future. Figure 4 Change in crude steel volume per unit of GDP (III) Prediction of China's crude steel The prediction of China's steel industry must grasp two factors. First, China's current per capita GDP has exceeded 3,000 US dollars. From the trajectory analysis of developed countries, steel will be in a steady growth trend; second, realize China's 2020 GDP per capita quadrupling. The goal is that steel will continue to grow to ensure that the goals are achieved. According to the relevant research results and the above analysis, China's GDP growth rate will be 7% in the future, and the annual decline rate of crude steel per unit of GDP will be 5% of the average value of three years (the actual average value of 2007-2009 is 4.86%, in order to calculate It is convenient to take 5%). Based on 2009, it is predicted that the GDP will reach 503.274 billion yuan in 2015, the crude steel volume per unit of GDP will be 1,245 tons/yuan, and the output of crude steel will be 626.64 million tons. The GDP will be 705.68 billion yuan by 2020. 963t / 100 million yuan, crude steel output of 680.07 million tons, if calculated according to the population of 2.6 billion in 2020, per capita steel output will reach 486kg, according to the trajectory analysis of industrialized countries, close to the average minimum level of per capita steel production. Third, iron ore demand forecast As the cumulative production and consumption of steel in China's history is very low, the proportion of scrap steel that has been recycled and recycled to the annual production and consumption of steel has not been high, and it is difficult to increase substantially in the next 10 years. Therefore, China's steel production and consumption are highly dependent on the consumption of iron ore. According to the statistical data analysis since 2000, China's crude steel/raw iron ratio is still about 1. According to It, pig iron needs about 3.5t of domestic iron ore, and the total demand of iron ore from 2010 to 2020 is predicted (33% of domestic standard mine) 26.1 billion tons, of which the demand in 2015 was 2.19 billion tons, and the demand in 2020 was 2.38 billion tons. Fourth, the conclusion In the next 10 years, China's steel output growth rate will slow down. It is estimated that by 2020, steel output will reach 680 million tons, per capita steel output will reach 486kg, and steel consumption intensity will be 0.65t/million US dollars (calculated according to the current RMB to US dollar exchange rate). , close to the average level of industrialized countries. In 2020, it will consume 2.38 billion tons of iron ore (according to the domestic average grade), taking into account factors such as technological progress, industrial restructuring and new prospecting, and domestic production is expected to reach 1.1 billion to 1.2 billion tons. Iron ore is externally dependent. The degree will drop significantly. The Parts of Lockstitch Bottom Hemming Machine which is easily worn out and need frequent repairment are exclusive accessories Lockstitch Bottom Hemming Machine Parts Lockstitch,Bottom Hemming Machine,sewing machine Parts,sewing machine DONGGUAN CHUANGHUI SEWING MACHINE CO.,LTD , http://www.ch-sewing.com