The number of variables in the development of Chinese automobiles has increased.

On June 9, 2012, according to the statistics released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the number of sales of passenger cars in May was 1,281,900, a year-on-year increase of 22.6%. Without relying on government incentives, the Chinese auto industry has shown signs of a strong recovery, and it temporarily stayed apart from the continued decline in the market in the first quarter.

At a time when the macro-economy is full of uncertainties, how long the performance of the Chinese auto market can last in May has become the focus of industry attention. To this end, the newspaper Automotive Research Institute and Gasgoo.com conducted a joint investigation on the development of the market in the second half of the year. The survey was conducted from June 11 to June 17, 2012, with 1,291 participants.

The survey results show that the vast majority of people in the industry are not optimistic about the auto market's continued strong recovery in the second half of the year. Among them, 47% expect that the growth rate of the auto market will be less than 5% in the second half of the year, and 42% of relative optimists believe that this figure will be between 5% and 10%. However, few people think that the auto market will maintain double-digit growth in the second half of the year, accounting for only 11% of the total number of votes.

Market pessimism aggravated The continuous downturn of the past year and the first quarter of this year has caused many agencies and experts to be very cautious about the prediction of the Chinese auto market. Over the past decade, the rapid growth of car sales has brought pressure on China's society and the environment. Traffic congestion has caused particularly headaches for urban residents and authorities. Last year, Beijing and Guiyang and other cities resorted to severe restrictions on purchases, which indicates that the traffic pressure in some cities has reached an unacceptable level.

With the publicization of PM2.5 data, Chinese people’s attention to urban air quality has also risen to a new height. The expectation that vehicle exhaust as one of the major sources of PM2.5 as a control and improvement target is being strengthened. At the same time, energy pressure and the outflow of profits from the automotive industry are also serious issues that the government has to face. These negatives make most industry players not optimistic about the overall growth of the auto market in the next six months.

In addition, the Chinese government’s economic development target for the first time “broken eight” this year, which also makes people feel the pressure of economic downturn. Demand for consumers to buy cars is likely to be postponed.

However, the Chinese auto market is not entirely unprofitable. The promotion plan for environmentally friendly and energy-saving models, the slight drop in oil prices, and the cut in interest rates may all lead to an increase in car sales. Moreover, the factors for the strong growth of the Chinese auto market still exist: urbanization continues to advance, the middle-class population continues to grow, and a large number of households have not yet acquired the first car. These factors make the development of China's auto market have great potential, but in the next half year, things will not be so optimistic.

In order to stimulate the auto consumption market, the Chinese government announced in May that it would arrange 6 billion yuan to support the promotion of 1.6-liter or lower displacement energy-saving vehicles. However, the market's reaction to this is not enthusiastic.

According to the survey, only 22% of people in the industry believe that the proportion of energy-saving and environmentally-friendly models will increase in the second half of this year; as many as 59% believe that vehicle sales such as SUVs and luxury cars will continue to be hotter. The remaining 19% of the participants chose to “not say” whether the auto market's consumption structure will improve in the second half of the year.

Chinese consumers have always had a preference for cars with larger space and higher displacement. In the traditional concept, buying a car is a face-saving investment, and the safety of the car is not as good as that of a large vehicle. At the same time, most of the small-displacement cars are manufactured by local auto companies, and their quality is still not as reliable as foreign brands in the eyes of consumers. Now that the advent of the second-wheel car purchase has also boosted the upgrade of consumer grades, coupled with the drop in oil prices, these factors mean that Chinese consumers are turning to the purchase of energy-saving and environmentally friendly cars for a short time.

Overall, the wait-and-see mood of China's auto consumption market is increasing.

Self-owned brands are being squeezed to occupy about 40% of the Chinese passenger car market's own brands, and are increasingly becoming the focus of attention in the industry. In the past two years, its market share has continued to decline and has intensified. As early as two years ago, the market share of self-owned brands has reached more than 50%. The possibility of improvement in the second half of this year is still very small in the eyes of most people in the industry. According to the survey, people who believe that their own brands may collectively improve only account for 13% of the total number of votes. The prerequisite for improvement is that the government will issue an effective support policy in the short term. About 47% of participants believe that the overall market share of self-owned brands may decline further in the second half of the year. At the same time, 32.7% of people believe that the internal differentiation of this camp will increase, and only a very small number of companies will stand out.

As the product line of joint-venture auto companies gradually explores, the space for middle and low-end markets on which independent brands rely depends on being squeezed; and subject to brand and product forces are not strong, in recent years their efforts to create mid-to-high-end cars have also been effective. micro.

After the exit of a number of major positive stimulus policies in 2011, the market share of self-owned brands began to decline. Except for a few state-owned large-scale automobile groups with deep government backgrounds, as well as enterprises with a certain scale of production and sales, the situation of numerous second-tier independent brands is in jeopardy. According to statistics from the China Automotive Industry Association, from January to April this year, only Changan, Chery and Geely entered the top ten sales of passenger vehicle companies, while many second-tier self-owned brands sold less than 100,000 vehicles in the first four months.

Like its own brands, the pessimistic atmosphere is diffused in the automobile circulation field.

Most people in the industry are not optimistic about the profitability of auto dealers in the second half of the year. As many as 55% of them believe that their profit levels may decline further in the second half of the year, while about 16% of relative optimists believe that dealers will maintain the same level as in the first half of the year. According to the filing data of the State Administration for Industry and Commerce, as of April this year, there were more than 70,000 domestic passenger car dealers (including secondary distributors and unincorporated agencies). The number of 4S stores (excluding mini-vehicles) will reach 20,000, and by the end of 2015, it will have reached 30,000. According to the market scale of 20 million vehicles, each dealer only sells more than 280 vehicles a year on average, which is undoubtedly less for the distributors who have built a store with a cost of tens of millions. Based on the optimistic outlook for the development of China's auto market, the expansion of vehicle manufacturers' networks is accelerating.

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