On February 20th, 2012, the State Council formally approved the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Western Development" proposed by the National Development and Reform Commission, and clearly stated that we must continue to prioritize infrastructure construction, highlighting two key links of transportation and water conservancy, and accelerate Build a modern infrastructure system that is moderately advanced, functionally supported, safe and efficient. The plan has injected a strong driving force for the commercial vehicle industry and has far-reaching impact.

Xinhuaxin believes that during the planning period, the demand for the commercial vehicle industry will grow rapidly under the drive of the development of the western region and will exhibit the following development characteristics:

First of all, with the encouragement of planning, the market demand will see a process of market recovery in 2012, followed by steady and continuous growth. In 2011, the overall automotive market fell sharply. Among them, commercial vehicles were even worse. Data from the China Automobile Association showed that commercial vehicle sales fell by 6% year-on-year. In 2012, the commercial vehicle market can still only be described by the word “dismal”. In January, sales decreased by 37% year-on-year. In February, sales increased 18% year-on-year, but cumulative sales in the first two months of 2012 were comparable. Still falling 12%. The motivation of the plan for the commercial vehicle terminal market generally takes about 1 year to develop. With the effect of the change of government, Xinhuaxin believes that in 2012, the commercial vehicle market demand will return to the highest level in history, and optimistic forecasts will be possible. A slight overtake occurred. At the same time, due to the urgency of various projects in the development of the western region, not all projects are started at the same time. It is expected that the market demand for commercial vehicles during the planning period will be stable and continue to grow.

Specifically, commercial vehicle segments will exhibit different benefits. There are more than 50 major railway projects under planning (interregional highways, international railways, coal transportation corridors, new regional development lines, transport hubs) and large-scale highway network construction projects. The construction of such projects is inseparable from construction vehicles and medium and heavy trucks. This will have a strong driving effect on the two market segments. In addition, the plan mentioned that “Beijing to Kunming, Beijing to Lhasa, Qingdao to Yinchuan, Lianyungang (601008, stocks) to Horgos, Shanghai to Xi’an, Shanghai to Chengdu, Hangzhou to Ruili, Guangzhou to Kunming” will be constructed. National highways, as well as highways in the eastern and central regions, and international transportation routes to neighboring countries in Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, and Northeast Asia, the popularity of highways will inevitably drive traffic and passenger flow in the Midwest and the East, as well as domestic and foreign traffic. As the volume increases, heavy-duty trucks, passenger cars and light trucks will benefit the long-term market. Secondly, some economic areas are mentioned in the plan, such as Chengdu-Chongqing area, Guanzhong-Tianshui area, Beibu Gulf area, Hubao Yincang area, Langzhong area, Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia Revolutionary Old Area, Lanxige area, and the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain. In the central and southern regions of the Tibet Autonomous Region, the Central Yunnan region, and the Yellow River region of Ningxia, priority will be given to developing these regions, and the demand for commercial vehicles will also be reflected more quickly. Because the central economy is higher than the western region, it is expected that the central region may have sales growth earlier than the western region of the third gradient, and the regional demand for in-depth western regions may lag behind the central region by about one year.

In addition, the plan also clearly puts forward the construction of energy, minerals, natural gas, coal, rare earth, non-ferrous metal and other energy mineral bases, such as Ordos Basin, Tarim Basin, northeastern Sichuan and Chongqing, northern Tianshan, and eastern regions. The construction of these energy bases may be even more urgent in the Panxi-Lipanshui area, the western Panzhihua area, the Hexi area of ​​Gansu, and the Qaidam Basin. The construction of railway and highway thoroughfares extending from these energy sources to the outside world is even more important. weight. Therefore, from the perspective of regional distribution, the demand for commercial vehicles in these areas, especially for construction vehicles and transportation, will be much greater than other areas.

In summary, the development of the western region is an opportunity for commercial vehicle enterprises. Large-scale commercial vehicle enterprises have already set up factories in the western region, such as CNHTC, Liberation to set up factories in Chengdu, and Shanxi Auto to set up factories in Xinjiang. At the same time, compared with the eastern region, manufacturers have shown more attention to the construction of dealer networks and spare parts reserves in the west. Dongfeng, Shaanxi Auto and other companies have already begun to take action. In addition, commercial vehicle manufacturers should also be fully prepared in terms of time, product layout, and market focus.

In terms of time, infrastructure such as transportation and water conservancy in planning will take 1-2 years. After a year of concrete planning and implementation, the market will be truly “good” for 2013-2015. For commercial vehicle companies, preparations must be made in advance. Manufacturers should pay close attention to the start-up time of large-scale construction projects in the western region and early development of commercial vehicle products suitable for the western region. In terms of products, short-term traffic and water conservancy projects will increase the demand for construction vehicles and dump trucks. With the popularization of highway networks, the demand for light trucks and passenger cars will continue to grow steadily. Each car company will advance according to market demand. Listed competitive products will grasp the market opportunities and give priority to benefit. In terms of the market, manufacturers should also pay attention to the used-car market, in addition to the priority areas for economic development and energy bases. Vehicle owners in the western region may have lost money because of less demand in the commercial vehicle market in the past two years. As a result, the number of vehicles in the hands of the vehicles in the central and eastern regions has fallen, and the number of commercial vehicles in the western region may be larger. The economic level of the western region is still at a relatively low level, and the price of used cars is relatively attractive to some customers. Therefore, investors may be more inclined to buy second-hand commercial vehicles. The competition between used commercial vehicles and new cars is also something manufacturers have to consider. problem.

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