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“Reuters†reported that as the Chinese government strengthens the treatment of air pollution, Chinese steel companies may face more closures and disposals next year. Last week, the steel makers in Hebei’s Wu’an Region received notification from the authorities requesting that some steel mills cut their electricity production and cut output, causing doubts about steel production. . The report quoted sources as saying that the recent shutdown of production capacity in Hebei Province was temporarily limited to major production areas.
The production doubts caused Shanghai Rebar futures to rise to an 11-week high, but then fell by nearly 2%, because the expected shutdown measures will be only about 15 days. The report pointed out that about a quarter of China’s crude steel production comes from Hebei. Last year, China’s crude steel production reached a record high of 716.5 million tons, and this year it is forecast to rise to 780 million tons. However, as China vigorously implements more pollution prevention measures and locks in steel and other industries, China's crude steel production may be suppressed next year. It is estimated that there are about 200 million tons of excess capacity in Chinese steel companies.
The report quoted analysts as saying that if China implements a shutdown policy for environmentally unsatisfactory factories and regularly inspects companies that have met the standards, this may mark a turning point in environmental law enforcement and excess capacity management. It is expected that this short-term suspension caused by environmental protection will be more frequent in the future.
Continuing to Implement Positive Financial Policies and Steady Monetary Policies One of the most important issues that restricts the development of the entire steel industry is the funding issue. Not only are steel listed companies short of money, private companies and steel trading companies are also short of money. On the one hand, it is difficult to operate. According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), the overall profitability of the domestic steel industry was only 0.4% from January to October, and the profit per ton of steel sales was only 8 cents, and the fund repatriation efforts increased significantly. Listed companies seek transformation and development, and the main targets are on the non-steel industry. However, this is only a temporary helpless move. The main business is in a downturn, and it is difficult for steel companies to get out of business difficulties. Taking into account the current operating conditions and financial status of the steel industry, banks should continue to implement strict credit policies for the steel industry in 2014, and the issue of tight funding is difficult to solve from the bank's credit. Continuing to implement proactive fiscal policies and sound monetary policies will help prevent a hard landing of the economy and promote economic recovery from the bottom. For the benefit of the entire economic development, it also provides a sustainable policy environment for the development of the steel industry, but from the central government From the perspective of the steel industry, "strict fiscal policy and aggressive monetary policy" will be a very important policy measure to promote the merger and reorganization of steel industry and reform and innovation.
The overall operating environment of the steel industry in 2013 was better than that of 2012. This can be confirmed from the current data. The operating environment of the steel industry in 2014 will be more complex, and the adjustment of production capacity will be the most important impact on the development of the steel industry. Content, the overall operating environment of the industry continues to improve, but more challenges will emerge. More steel companies and operators are forced to withdraw from the steel industry. Changes in the contents of the executive heads’ assessments have undergone major changes. “Survival†is still a major issue for steel companies in 2014. Steel producers need to speed up the process of financialization of the entire industry chain, use a gradually improved futures market system to complete the futures of corporate procurement marketing, and avoid market risks; steel trade enterprises Therefore, it is necessary to extend the industrial chain to consider more services for deep processing and matching, to consider the path of the e-commercialization business, and to reduce logistics and management costs. It is also expected that the steel industry will be able to develop healthily in 2014 and be able to make outstanding achievements in the economic downturn.
The severe haze in North China since the beginning of this year has a direct bearing on the full production of iron and steel enterprises. Driven by both domestic and international demand, the peak consumption of crude steel in China will exceed 900 million tons and move closer to 1 billion tons. Export demand (including direct and indirect exports) may reach 200 million tons. The demand for so many crude steel, especially the overseas crude steel exports, cannot meet the long-term domestic production in any case. This is an unsustainable environment in China.
Therefore, Chinese steel companies must go out and shift some of their domestic steel production capacity overseas. Large-scale imports of iron ore, coking coal, and other smelting raw materials will be converted into large quantities of finished steel products. At least, all types of steel billets will be imported to realize the development of Chinese steel. The major transfer of strategy will bring about a gradual reduction of China's GDP energy consumption. Relevant departments should conduct top-level design, forward-looking guidance, and overall layout. To improve environmental protection standards, increase environmental protection law enforcement, increase the environmental protection cost per ton of steel, and use environmental protection pressures, should become an important measure to force steel companies to go global.
Although inventory fell to a low level, many traders indicated that the current market environment is different from that of the past, and the risk of stock picking is relatively high. Therefore, the operation is basically conducted with low inventory, and the willingness of traders for winter storage is not rising.