China Automobile Association: China's auto production and sales volume of 40 million must rely on exports

According to Shi Jianhua, the ceiling for annual sales of 40 million vehicles is achievable, but exports will account for a large proportion, and the growth of new cars alone is still unrealistic.

On November 10, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers officially released its domestic auto production and sales data for October. Data show that in October domestic auto production and sales completed 2.604 million units and 2.704 million units, respectively, and production and sales volume decreased by 2.5% and 0.2% respectively.

Among them, the development of new energy vehicles is swift and violent, with a production volume of 92,000 units, an increase of 85.9% year-on-year, and a sales volume of 91,000 units, an increase of 106.7% year-on-year. Up to now, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in the first 10 months was 490,000, an increase of 45.4% year-on-year.

"Jin 9 Silver 10" has always been the unwritten law in the development of the domestic automobile market. However, in the face of the fact that sales had recently declined in October, Chen Shihua, director of the Industrial Information Department of the China Automobile Industry Association, told car forecasters: “October's production and sales data are indeed too low compared to previous years, although there was psychological Prepared, but this figure is beyond our expectation, but in the next two months, the association believes there will be a slight recovery in sales."

According to car forecasters, the low production and sales data for October comes from a variety of reasons, mainly from the fact that market-level incentives in September and October were relatively small. Although the price index fell in September, it basically came from luxury cars. The decline in prices, Volkswagen models in the terminal area of ​​the discount rate is not large. In addition, the company did not make more promotional efforts during the two months of the "Golden September Silver 10".

In Chen Shihua's view, the current development of the market has gradually become more benign, and the increase in the number should not be particularly valued. On the contrary, re-quality is a good sign for future development. At the same time, the China Automobile Association revealed that: “The sales overdraft caused by the purchase tax incentive policy last year is also a non-negligible factor that has caused the sales volume to decrease.”

In addition, the reason for the slight increase in sales volume in the next two months may be due to the fact that the preferential policy for “levying vehicle purchase tax at a 7.5% rate for passenger vehicles with 1.6 liters and below” will be implemented at the beginning of the year. At the end of the month, the stimulus for preferential policies is likely to help the recovery of sales in the next two months.

However, whether the sales rebound caused by the policy stimulus will cause sales overdrafts for the next period as in the past 2016?

Jian Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, told car forecasters: “The policy's retreat has not caused too much impact on the market today. Although sales in the latter two months have been adversely affected, they have been referring to the recent period of time. In terms of market growth, it will not be overdrawn for sales in the next year."

It is understood that in 2016, the overall domestic sales growth was 14%, and the growth rate in the first quarter of 2017 slowed to 5%. As of now, the overall growth rate of the auto market has dropped to 4%. Prior to this, the China Automobile Association had said that the overall growth rate of 5% or so would continue for a long period of time in the future.

Although the growth rate of the overall production and sales of domestic automobiles has been relatively slow in the past two years, it still has a large body. The data shows that in 2016 China's auto production and sales of vehicles exceeded 28 million. As early as the beginning of the year, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers had predicted that in 2017 the overall sales of China's auto market will reach 29.4 million.

Previously, industry experts once told car prophet that the overall sales volume is still not an extreme value. With the development of the Chinese automobile industry, the overall sales volume of China will exceed 40 million vehicles.

For this view, Shi Jianhua said: The ceiling of 40 million sales is in line with reality, which is also a good vision for all the future development of Chinese cars, but the realization of this figure is to provide great help in the international market. The proportion of auto exports is increasing, and the possibility of simply relying on the growth of domestic new cars is still relatively small.

Referring to the export volume of China's autos in October, the total export volume of automobile enterprises was 88,000, which was a 5.8% increase from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 42.2%, showing a rapid growth trend.

In the export region, we learned that China’s auto exports are mainly targeted at the non-developed regions such as Latin America, Russia, the Middle East, and North Africa, while Europe and North America have both experienced negative growth.

It is understood that many domestic enterprises are currently located in India and Southeast Asia, and this area is the area where the growth rate of automobiles is relatively large. This means that if the total sales volume of 40 million in the future is realized, the Southeast Asian and Indian markets are likely to be the areas that will be mainly targeted for the future of Chinese auto exports.

In fact, referring to domestic automobile production and sales data in October, it is not difficult for us to find that although the overall sales volume has declined, the rapid development of the new energy field is still an important part of the outside world that cannot be ignored.

According to statistics, in October, sales of domestic pure electric passenger cars were 55,000, and plug-in hybrid passenger cars were 13,000. Sales of new energy commercial vehicles were 23,000, including 22,000 pure-electric commercial vehicles. Plug-in hybrid commercial vehicle 10,000 vehicles. In the first eight months of 2017, the cumulative sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 393,000, and the cumulative sales of new energy commercial vehicles were 97,000.

According to the general law, the rapid growth of new energy vehicles is in the second half of the year, and it is expected to continue to maintain a high growth rate in the last two months. From the current data, it does make a good start for the next two months. If this law will be true, then the goal of selling 700,000 new energy vehicles this year is fully achievable.