Zhang Xinong, deputy general manager of XinHuiNong Agricultural Production Materials (Beijing) Co., Ltd.: The new fertilizer export tariff policy clarifies that the benchmark price does not include taxes. On the surface, it is good for exports, but this has little impact on the market and exports. Because no matter what kind of policy is adopted, the domestic and international markets will influence each other. At present, the urea market's oversupply still exists. However, domestic urea companies will still have certain export opportunities next year.

The adjustment of demand for urea before spring plowing is mainly due to the use of fertilizer in the off-season. There was a period of time before the international urea price was lowered from US$520/tonne to US$400/tonne, while the domestic urea price remained at a high level. It is abnormal for the off-season price to not fall. It also affects the distributors' enthusiasm for stocking to some extent. Therefore, during the Spring Festival, the domestic urea market began to decline, but this is not the impact of tariff policies, but the market demand. Only when the price of urea falls back to the normal price can dealers begin to stock up.

The main reason for the non-export price increase of ammonium chloride last year

Wang Xuejiang, General Manager of Yantai Wuzhou Fengshi Defu Fertilizer Co., Ltd.: Many people believe that the price increase of ammonium chloride in 2011 was mainly due to the export of binary compound fertilizer. This argument is very different from the actual situation. Exports are indeed the cause of one aspect, but they are not decisive factors. Ammonium chloride is mainly produced by soda enterprises, and 1 ton of soda ash can produce 1 ton of ammonium chloride. Soda ash is closely linked to the construction industry. Last year, the state regulated the property market, the real estate industry shrank, and the production load of soda ash manufacturers fell, resulting in very low soda ash production. This led to a reduction in the supply of ammonium chloride and an increase in prices. Another factor is that the two largest capacity soda ash companies in northern Tianjin and Dalian have been suspended due to relocation. This reduces the production of nearly 2 million tons of soda ash, which means that it has a greater impact on the dual-compound fertilizer market.

New Deal or promote mergers and acquisitions of SMEs

Zhuo Creative Information analyst Han Jian: Because of the high urea tariff policy last year, the export volume has been reduced by half compared to the previous year. At the same time, due to the low tariff policy of binary compound fertilizers and small-packaged fertilizers, the export volume of ammonium chloride in 2011 increased by 45.9% over the previous year, ammonium nitrate increased by 47.7%, and heavy calcium increased by 67.3%. Calcium increased by 2.7 times, small package fertilizer less than 10 kilograms per bag increased by 4.4 times, and nitrogen and phosphorus compound fertilizer increased by 4.6 times.

It is worth noting that the new tariff this year clearly stipulates that the tax rate for 10 kg of small packaged fertilizer during the peak season is 7% + 75% and that for the off-season is 7%. This solves a previous policy loophole. Before the 10 kg of small packaging fertilizer exports only need to pay 7% tariff, many urea manufacturers will then change the large package into a small package exports, in order to avoid high tariffs.

The main impact of this year's tariff adjustment will be on fertilizers for small and medium-sized enterprises, or will promote mergers and reorganizations.

Nitrogen Fertilizer Enters Key Stage of Structural Adjustment

Huang Xiaobing, general manager of Huanong Agricultural Resources Chain Co., Ltd.: The next two to three years are the critical period for China's nitrogen fertilizer industry adjustment and transformation. At present, many enterprises have relied on the dependence on Shanxi anthracite and started to use resources such as pulverized coal and bituminous coal. In addition, the technological structure of the company is also being adjusted, and the pressurized gasification technology of coal-water slurry and aerospace furnaces are all promoting the technological upgrading of the entire industry. The process of such transformation is very painful. Enterprises with poor competitiveness will be eliminated and new batches of enterprises suitable for future development will gradually rise up.

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