The trend of a large-scale decline in the price of chemical products is still continuing. When will the reversal occur? Judging from the current economic situation, expectations cannot be overly optimistic. Whether it is from the perspective of cost or demand analysis, the depth adjustment of the chemical market will continue, and it is still necessary for the chemical industry board to wait for a certain period of time. Judging from crude oil, the chemical's most upstream raw material, its price once played a supportive role for the price of chemical products. At present, this support has begun to “stand stillâ€. Last week, concerns about the Greek economy and the increase in global crude oil supply were warming up. Changes in political conditions in Europe have cast a shadow over economic growth prospects, and crude oil prices have been declining. Looking at the market outlook, under the backdrop of the slowdown in global economic growth, the supply and demand of the crude oil market is generally loose, and the possibility of crude oil prices continuing to fall is greater. Data shows that at the end of April, China's crude oil inventories (excluding reserves) increased by 4.36% from the previous quarter. Affected by the decline in crude oil prices, prices of pure benzene, phenol, styrene and other products have dropped slightly for two consecutive weeks. Because there is a certain lag in cost transmission, the impact of more downstream chemical products is relatively small, but if the price of crude oil falls further, there is still room for the chemical sector to continue to adjust. From the perspective of demand, the low demand in the end of the industry chain has brought great pressure on the market, and more and more products have joined the ranks of the overcast. The macroeconomic situation shows that the pattern of low demand is unlikely to change in the short term. State Department of Development Research Center Financial Research Institute deputy director, researcher Ba Shusong said in the microblogging, the readjustment shows that the pre-adjustment fine-tuning efforts tend to increase, the economy is bottoming out. In April, the new low credit supply during the year, the year-on-year M2 growth rate dropped to 12.8%, weaker import and export data, and especially the industrial value added with electricity generation volume, etc. declined sharply (taking into account the lower base last year, 4 The month-on-year rate of industrial added value will fall significantly month-on-month, indicating that economic growth has continued to decline after undergoing a rapid decline in the first quarter. The downturn in the economy is not just in the chemical industry, but other manufacturing industries are also shrinking. The BCI of the commodity supply and demand index released by the Business Club in mid-May 2012 was -0.62, with an average increase of -2.44%. The decrease continued to increase from the previous period, and the decline continued to deepen. This reflects that the current manufacturing economy is shrinking, the economy has not stabilized, and there are downside risks. Of course, some chemical products rely on compressed operating rates, and their market prices remain strong. However, this approach only delays the decline. In the chemical industry, there are many sub-sectors with excess capacity. Since manufacturers cannot truly act in concert, “limited production and price protection†has always been short-term behavior. At present, the depth adjustment of the chemical market is actually a warning to the chemical industry to eliminate backward production capacity and upgrade the technological level. It will be difficult to get out of the crisis just by going to inventory. For investors, it is necessary to pay close attention to the process of de-capacity in the chemical industry. When the operating rate of large companies rises, and the price of products tends to rise, the best investment point will come true.
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